We are probably closer than ever to feeling the uncertain nature of the world we live in. Because of uncertainty, humans and animals must estimate the probability of potential outcomes in order to make good decisions. But how and how good are we estimating probability? In this talk, I will present a recent study from my lab that looked at this issue. We found a key source that causes people to give biased probability estimates: when we draw on past experiences to estimate probability, the events that we experience close in time would bias against each other. Further, these biases can be decoded based on patterns of brain activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and intraparietal sulcus, suggesting that these brain regions are involved in context or experience-dependent biases in probability estimation.
參考文獻：https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3000634